Melbourne's weather on Melbourne Cup Day on Tuesday will be much better suited to outdoor activities than it will be this Monday, which looms as wet and potentially stormy in the Victorian capital.

Here's a quick breakdown of the weather situation across Victoria this Monday with a view to what to expect on Tuesday, November 3, which is a public holiday across the state (but in no other states or territories).

Showery Monday in Melbourne with afternoon storms possibly developing

Image: Rain radar and atmospheric water vapour loop for the six hours to 10:30 am (AEDT) on Monday, November 2, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

A low pressure system is moving across southern New South Wales this Monday and is interacting with moisture to the east and south.

A rainband can be seen crossing Victoria and parts of southern NSW in the loop above, which shows the rain radar and atmospheric water vapour on Monday morning from pre-dawn to mid-morning.

When spring rainbands cross Victoria, they often tend to be largely north-south in orientation, but due to the position of the low this Monday, the main band of moisture across Victoria is more east-west in alignment.

However, the rainband which is currently situated north and west of Melbourne is expected to dip south during the day with rain and showers developing in Melbourne around lunchtime.

Thunderstorms look increasingly likely to develop during the afternoon and evening, possibly severe, with potential flash flooding in the northwest suburbs and other parts of the city.

Rain and storms clearing overnight, then mostly dry on Tuesday

Image: Mean sea level pressure and precipitable water over Victoria and parts of nearby states at 11 am (AEDT) on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, showing the low centred over NSW and atmospheric moisture moving towards eastern Victoria.

On Tuesday, the low continues its eastwards march to be positioned over inland parts of eastern NSW by the middle of the day, taking most of the rain and storms with it.

Winds will swing around to cool southerlies in Melbourne, but there is no significant influx of moisture from the south. So apart from the chance of a light morning shower, the Melbourne Cup Day public holiday looks relatively dry across most of Victoria except for Gippsland and parts of the high country.

Melbourne itself should enjoy clear, sunny skies by Tuesday afternoon.

Image: Daily forecast for Melbourne, Vic, on the Weatherzone app.