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A trough crossing southeast Qld is bringing rain and thunderstorms, some intense. Moist unstable winds are triggering showers and storms over SA and the northern tropics. Moist onshore winds are driving a few light showers into southwest WA and Tas.
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Today, 1:54AM UTC
Hobart records warmest October in 144 years
October 2026 was Hobart's warmest October in 144 years of records, with both daytime and overnight temperatures reaching record highs. As mentioned multiple times through the last month, Hobart and Tasmania have experienced exceptional heat throughout much of October, including an early-season heatwave. Hobart was also at times warmer than Brisbane for several consecutive days, some 1,800km to the south of the Queensland capital. Hobart's hot October Hobart's official weather station on Ellerslie Road, which has been recording weather data since 1882, reached a maximum of 32.1°C on Friday 23rd, making it the hottest October day since 2006 (when the mercury reached 33.1°C). Image: Hobart observation summary for October 2026 highlighting the warmest day of the month on Friday October 23rd as seen on the Weatherzone app. Source: Weatherzone. In the 144 years of the station's records, October 2026 ranked as the hottest October on record for both minimum (10.0°C) and maximum (20.6°C) temperatures. Hobart was not the only Tasmanian location to have its warmest October on record, with nearly 30 other observation stations recording either their hottest average October minimum and/or maximum temperatures on record. Persistent high pressure and below average rainfall This persistent pattern of warmth across Tasmania has been caused by frequent strong and slow-moving high pressure systems over southeastern Australia. These highs direct northerly winds coming from the warm Australian mainland southwards, often lasting for a week or more. A consequence of these stagnant high pressure patterns is a reduction in the frequency and strength of rain bearing cold fronts. As seen in the image below, Tasmania (particularly western parts) has seen mostly below average rainfall across the state. Image: Tasmanian rainfall deciles for October 2026 showing drier than normal conditions. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Locations across western and southern Tasmania experienced between 45 and 65% of their typical October rainfall. Hobart received 34mm during the month, 55% of its the normal October rainfall of 63mm.
31 Oct 2026, 6:43AM UTC
Intense thunderstorms lining up across NSW
Thunderstorms have been intensifying across inland New South Wales this afternoon, from north of Bourke to the Snowy Mountains and beyond, threatening these areas and further east heading into this evening. At 4pm, the area of potentially severe thunderstorms was stretching more than 1000 km into neighbouring parts of Victoria and Queensland. The main threat from these storms is damaging winds and large hail. Most storms will be travelling too fast to bring anything more than brief heavy rain (as much as about 15mm in 15 minutes). Image: lightning, radar, satellite, severe thunderstorm warning area (shaded) at 4pm EDT on 31 Oct, 2026, and district borders. Source: Weatherzone. Earlier in the afternoon, severe thunderstorms impacted the ACT and the nearby southern highlands of NSW. Asjungbilly picked up 20mm in under an hour. GIF: satellite and radar showing a severe thunderstorm skirting the ACT around 4pm EDT 31 Oct, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Across the southern border, in Victoria, some storms delivered as much as about 30mm in under an hour. Later this afternoon and into this evening, severe thunderstorms in NSW become a chance further east, from the Illawarra across the Central Tablelands to the North West Slopes and Plains, and potentially into parts of Sydney. Come Sunday, severe thunderstorms in NSW will become focussed on the state's northeast, on the slopes, ranges and coast, north from the Hunter. GIF: thunderstorm risk in the hours around 2pm EDT on 1 Nov, 2026, from GFS model. Source: Weatherzone. It is advised to pay close attention to the warnings, particularly if you're Halloweening the streets.
30 Oct 2026, 4:00AM UTC
Rain and thunderstorms to spread over eastern Australia this weekend
Rain and storms will affect broad areas of Queensland, NSW, the ACT, Victoria and Tasmania this weekend, with severe thunderstorms possible in several states. What will cause this weekend’s stormy weather? A low pressure trough and cold front will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms across Australia’s eastern and southeastern states this weekend. This wet and stormy weather will be fuelled by abundant tropical moisture and enhanced by copious atmospheric instability. Friday provided a preview of the systems that will drive this weekend’s storms, with the trough already producing thunderstorms over inland Qld and the developing front generating rain and storms over parts of SA. Image: Composite satellite, radar and lightning observations at 2pm AEDT on Friday, October 30, 2026, showing rain and thunderstorms over Queensland and SA. Source: Weatherzone. Southeastern Australia: Storms and damaging winds on Saturday The front and an associated low pressure system will move across southeastern Australia on Saturday, causing rain, thunderstorms and blustery winds to spread over parts of Victoria, Tasmania, NSW, the ACT and the southeast of SA. Saturday’s storms will be fast-moving as they sweep across southeastern Australia. This will reduce the likelihood of heavy rainfall but increases the risk of damaging wind gusts. The Bureau of Meteorology may issue severe thunderstorm warnings as storms develop on Saturday. Melbourne and Canberra both have a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday. Melbourne’s highest chance will be in the late morning and early afternoon, while Canberra’s storm risk increases in the afternoon and early evening. In addition to the rain and storms, a burst of powerful northwesterly winds will also develop ahead of the approaching front on Saturday. These winds could reach damaging strength in parts of northeast Victoria and southern NSW, most likely about higher parts of the ranges. Sunday is expected to feature more settled weather across southeastern Australia in the wake of the front. Eastern Australia: Storms spreading east and north during the weekend Queensland and NSW could both see severe storms this weekend. On Saturday, the focus of rain and thunderstorms will most likely stretch across an inland corridor from central NSW up to southern Queensland, along a low pressure trough. There will be plenty of instability and moisture to support storms in these areas, so severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain are possible. Saturday’s stormy weather may also extend up to parts of northern Queensland and across to eastern NSW. The Sydney region has a chance of storms in the afternoon and evening. On Sunday, rain and thunderstorms should spread further north and east across northeast NSW and southeast Queensland. This could be another day of severe thunderstorms in these areas. Brisbane may see storms on Sunday afternoon or early evening as convective activity ramps up across southeast Queensland. Image: Convective available potential energy (CAPE) over eastern Australia at 5 pm AEDT on Sunday, November 1, 2026. CAPE is a measure of atmospheric instability. As a general rule, the higher the CAPE the more energy available for thunderstorm development, should storms begin to form. Source: Weatherzone. How to stay ahead of this weekend’s potentially severe weather Forecasts are a good way to see what types of weather may be coming up for your location. However, once rain and thunderstorms start to develop, observational tools like satellite and radar images and lightning strike observations become more useful. Severe weather and severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology will also contain the most up-to-date information on heavy rainfall, damaging winds and severe thunderstorms. These warnings are available from the Bureau’s website and also on the Weatherzone website and app. For emergency help in severe weather, including flooding and thunderstorms, ring the SES on 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.




