Australian Weather

Today, 1:58AM UTC

A surge of warmth is coming to at least three capital cities in southeastern Australia (and nearby regions). Unusually for this time of year, the spell of warm, stable weather is set to last for around a week. During spring, we often hear about the so-called spring temperature "see-saw", when maximums can fluctuate quite dramatically from one day to the next across southern Australia. For example: Just this week, Sydney went from a high of 34.8°C on Monday to a maximum below 20°C on Tuesday, and a top of just 16.9°C on Thursday as cool air lingered. Hobart topped out at just 12.8°C this Tuesday but its forecast high is already 23°C this Friday. But for the next week, three capital cities in particular – Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart – will be consistently warm without a significant break in the prevailing weather conditions. The week ahead for Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart After an expected peak of 23°C this Friday, Melbourne is forecast to reach highs of 25°C, 25°C, 27°C, 28°C, 26°C and 29°C up until next Thursday, with nothing more than a very light shower in the forecast on one or two of those days. Adelaide should reach 26°C this Friday, after which it can expect highs around 27°C, 29°C, 30°C, 25°C, 25°C and 30°C between Saturday and next Thursday. After this Friday's high around 23°C, Hobart locals can look forward to a rare run of six October days in at least the mid-twenties, with maximums around 24°C, 25°C, 27°C, 27°C, 24°C and 28°C. Image: Temperature anomalies across Australia predicted for the morning of Monday, October 19, 2026, showing how Tasmania, Victoria and parts of SA near Adelaide will be warmer than usual, while the east coast from Sydney to Brisbane and further north will be significantly cooler. Source: Tropical Tidbits. As for the other southeastern capitals, Canberra will be a little cooler than the three cities just mentioned for the first few days of the coming 7-day period, hence it doesn't really qualify for the "prolonged period of warmth" mentioned at the top of this story. Sydney will also be cooler than Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart most days due to the influence of cool southeasterlies from the Tasman Sea which will push showers onshore from time to time. Brisbane is also facing a cool spell. Maximums will be at least a couple of degrees below the October average of 27.2°C for the next week, again due to persistent coolish southeasterlies. Why such a consistent weather pattern in the week ahead? "The stagnant weather pattern across southeastern Australia will be caused by a high pressure system lingering between now and next Thursday or Friday," Weatherzone meteorologist Felix Levesque explains. "The high will drive warm northerly winds towards Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart, while Sydney and Brisbane get an onshore flow with cloud, showers and milder temperatures. Image: Synoptic chart for Saturday, October 17, 2026, showing air circulating anti-clockwise around the high, pushing moisture onshore and dragging warm air from the interior of the mainland towards Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart. Source: Weatherzone. If you compare this coming Saturday's and nest Tuesday's synoptic charts (above and below), you can see how there is very little change in the weather pattern, as the centre of the high drifts very slowly over the waters of the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand. Image: Synoptic chart for Tuesday, October 20, 2026, illustrating how the position of the high will change only very slightly over three days. Source: Weatherzone. The high is preventing the classic spring temperature see-saw by steering any cold fronts well south of Australia, such as the one we saw earlier this week that brought snow to Tasmania.

15 Oct 2026, 5:48AM UTC

Significant rainfall totals have already been recorded in parts of Queensland which have seen very little rainfall since early autumn, and more wet weather is set to arrive in coming days. This wet spell will be welcomed by many Queenslanders. As the chart below shows, Queensland had Australia's largest area of significantly below-average rainfall in the 2026 winter, partly due to the influence of El Niño, which typically makes the state drier. While outback Queensland saw some unusually wet weather in both June and July, the eastern half of the state had a relentlessly dry winter, and the trend has continued through the first half of spring in many areas. Until this week. Image: Australian rainfall deciles in winter 2026. Source: BoM. Where has the rain already fallen and where will it fall? In the 24 hours to 9 am this Thursday, October 15, widespread falls of 25-50 mm were reported from the Gulf Country in the state's northwest all the way down to parts of the state's southeast. At least two locations in the Gulf Country recorded more than 50 mm, while falls exceeding 50 mm extended all the way east to the Central Highlands and Coalfields forecast district. A weather station close to the town of Emerald recorded 61 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am Thursday, while Emerald itself had 19.2 mm in the same period. That's far from a huge total, but it's a significant soaking when you consider that Emerald had just 1 mm of rainfall in June, no rain in July, 1 mm in August and absolutely no rain again in September, followed by just a few millimetres this October before yesterday's rainfall. Image: Accumulated rainfall (sky blue) vs average rainfall (light blue) in the 12 months to October 2026 in Emerald, Qld. Source: Weatherzone. The situation was similar in the nearby Coalfields town of Moranbah, where the 12 mm that fell to 9 am and the additional 20 mm of rainfall that accumulated between 9 am and 1 pm this Thursday (AEST) would have been extremely welcome after just 10.6 mm of rainfall was recorded in the six months from March to September. While late autumn, winter, and early spring is typically the driest time of year in much of eastern and central Queensland, this year's paltry rainfall totals were still well below the historical average. An important point worth noting is that despite the widespread nature of this week's unstable wet weather in Queensland, rainfall totals have been, and will continue to be, quite variable. Due to the stormy nature of the system, some areas will receive heavy falls over a relatively short period while nearby areas could miss out on heavy rain – or even miss out entirely. What is causing this week's wet spell? The rain is being caused by a broad trough across Queensland which is very slow-moving and should stick around for several days yet. Much of the available atmospheric moisture has travelled across the country from the Indian Ocean at relatively high levels of the atmosphere. Sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean to Australia's northwest are considerably warmer-than-average at present, fuelling the moisture uptake. Persistent easterlies are also flowing onshore to Queensland from the Coral Sea this week at lower levels of the atmosphere, providing another moisture source. We'll keep you updated on this system as it develops, and please keep checking the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest flood, storm, and severe weather warnings.