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Moist unstable winds drive showers and thunderstorms over parts of eastern NSW, Qld and the eastern NT. A weak cold front brings a few showers to southwest WA. High pressure brings settled weather over the country's south and southeast.
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Today, 2:48AM UTC
Why did Australia have its 9th-wettest October during El Niño?
Australia just recorded its 9th-wettest October since national rainfall observations started in 1900, with above-average rainfall in all states and territories except Tasmania. So why did this happen during the current strong phase of El Niño, a climate driver which typically brings drier weather to most of Australia at this time of year? Image: October rainfall anomaly for Australia as a whole, 1900 to 2026. Source: BoM. Here are the main reasons why October 2026 was generally wet in Australia despite El Niño: Warmer than average sea-surface temperatures around Australia El Niño tends to reduce rainfall over Australia during winter and spring (and especially in large parts of southern and eastern Australia) by weakening the trade winds that blow moisture-laden air towards the country from the tropical Pacific Ocean. But as Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains, "Warmer-than-average water near Australia can supply the atmosphere with additional moisture via enhanced evaporation, which can counteract the drying influence of El Niño." Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies around Australia on November 1, 2026. Source: BoM. As the chart above illustrates, sea surface temperatures were around a degree above average at the start of November in waters surrounding significant portions of Australia. The pattern was similar during October. Warm Indian Ocean waters negate typical effects of both El Niño and positive IOD Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies on October 26, 2026, showing a large area of warmer than normal water just south of the tropics and outside the labelled IOD monitoring regions. Source: NOAA. While El Niño is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon, the dynamics of the Indian Ocean also influence Australia's weather. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an index that monitors changes in sea surface temperatures on either side of the tropical Indian Ocean. Like El Niño, the different phases of the IOD typically affect Australia's weather in different ways. On October 27, the BoM declared that a positive IOD event was underway, after the IOD Index exceeded the positive threshold for seven consecutive weeks. A positive IOD means that surface waters in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (near Indonesia) are consistently cooler than the western tropical Indian Ocean, and it typically results in less moisture-laden air (and associated rainfall) flowing towards Australia from the northwest. Image: Typical features and impacts of a positive IOD. Source: Weatherzone. The combination of a positive IOD and a strong El Niño would ordinarily provide two strong pointers to a predominantly dry weather pattern across much of Australia during October. But their effects throughout October were largely negated (and could continue to be defied in November) by a large area of warmer-than-average water in the south–central Indian Ocean, sitting just south of the IOD monitoring regions in the tropics. During October, moisture streamed across the country on several occasions from the part of the Indian Ocean where the warm "blob" was located. Warmer-than-average waters east of Australia also played a significant role. The largely stagnant Tasman Sea high pressure system in mid-October In mid-October, a large, very slow-moving high pressure system drifted out over the Tasman Sea and effectively "parked" itself there for around a week. Air circulating anti-clockwise around this high pushed moisture-laden air from both the Tasman and Coral Seas towards Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. The prolonged mid-month wet spell helped Queensland as a whole register its second-wettest October on record, while rainfall was the highest on record for parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, and Wide Bay and Burnett forecast districts. Image: Australian rainfall deciles in October, 2026. Source: BoM. Short-term outlook: can we expect more widespread rain in November despite El Niño and the positive IOD? "The positive IOD is still expected to restrict the amount of available moisture to generate rainfall across the Australian region in coming months, although it’s strongest impacts may be to the north of the country," Ben Domensino explains. "This dry influence will also be enhanced by El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean." As the map below shows, Tasmania faces another potentially drier-than-average month, while southern Victoria could also miss out on significant rainfall. If so, Melbourne parks and gardens should stay green for now after 113.8 mm accumulated in the city gauge during October, the wettest month of 2026 to date. Image: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall during November 2026, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model. Source: BoM. At this stage, forecast models are also expecting wetter-than-average conditions for most of Australia in December.
Today, 12:07AM UTC
Severe thunderstorms could bring giant hail, destructive winds and flash flooding to eastern Australia on Tuesday
Parts of Queensland and NSW will likely be impacted by severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, with destructive winds, giant hail and flash flooding all possible. An upper-level trough passing over eastern Australia on Tuesday will cause the atmosphere to become unstable enough to support widespread thunderstorm activity over parts of Queensland, NSW, the ACT and Victoria. Image: Modelled 500 hPa wind and temperature at 5 pm AEDT on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, showing an upper-level trough over eastern Australia. Source: Weatherzone. Tuesday’s outbreak of showers and thunderstorms will extend roughly 2000 km from central Queensland to eastern Victoria, possibly including Brisbane, Sydney and Canberra. A focus area for more intense storms will be over central and southeast Queensland and northeast NSW, where increased wind shear – changing wind speed and direction with height – may cause very dangerous supercell thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening. Supercells are the most dangerous type of thunderstorm. They are capable of lasting for several hours and typically produce violent weather that can include very heavy rainfall, destructive wind gusts (exceeding 125 km/h) and giant hail (greater than 5 cm diameter). Some supercells can also cause tornadoes. Image: Lifted index over eastern Australia at 2 pm AEDT on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This is a measure of atmospheric instability. Areas with negative lifted index values are more likely to see thunderstorm activity. Source: Weatherzone. It’s not possible to predict exactly where severe thunderstorms or supercells will develop on Tuesday. However, the area stretching from Queensland’s Central Highlands and Coalfields down to about Sydney, including southeast Queensland and northeast NSW, is where severe storms are most likely to occur during Tuesday. The highest risk of supercells on Tuesday will be between central Queensland and the Mid North Coast in NSW, including southeast Queensland. If any tornadoes do occur on Tuesday, they will be very localised compared to the rain, hail and wind impacts that are more likely to occur across this region. With three capital cities and numerous other densely populated areas at risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, millions of Australians may be affected by this dangerous storm outbreak. Anyone in eastern Australia on Tuesday should keep up to date with the latest severe thunderstorm warnings. Checking the radar throughout the day will also help stay on top of developing showers and thunderstorms. For emergency help in severe weather, including flooding and thunderstorms, ring the SES on 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.
02 Nov 2026, 7:14AM UTC
Australia's 2026–27 tropical cyclone season begins – How many cyclones are expected?
Australia’s six-month tropical cyclone season is now officially underway and while this season is predicted to be quieter than usual for the Australia region, severe tropical cyclones and coastal crossings are still possible. When is Australia’s tropical cyclone season? The Australian tropical cyclone season runs from the start of November until the end of April. This six-month period is the time of year when tropical cyclone development is most likely to occur in the Australian region, due to warm sea surface temperatures and enhanced rain and thunderstorm activity providing the necessary ingredients for tropical cyclones to form and intensify. How many tropical cyclones form near Australia each season? Over the past 45 years, there has been an average of 9–10 tropical cyclones in the Australian region each season. Of these, roughly 3–4 typically make landfall in Australia each season. However, the number of tropical cyclones has declined slightly in recent decades, with the average sitting closer to 8–9 per season during the last 25 years. El Niño typically reduces tropical cyclone frequency even further, with El Niño seasons averaging around seven cyclones per season. Image: Tropical cyclone count for all seasons from 1980–81 to 2025–26. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. How many tropical cyclones will form this season? According to computer modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this season is likely to see about 5–8 tropical cyclones in the Australian region. This range aligns with what would be expected during an El Niño season based on historical records. While many of these tropical cyclones will probably stay over the ocean, some should impact Australia. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, “there has always been at least one tropical cyclone that crosses the Australian coast each season.” It’s also important to point out that tropical cyclones do not need to make landfall to cause severe weather. Due to their large size, tropical cyclones that pass close to the coast can still cause flooding rain, damaging winds, severe thunderstorms and storm surges on land. What names will be used for tropical cyclones this season? Tropical cyclones that form in Australia’s area of responsibility are assigned names by the Bureau of Meteorology. Any systems that form outside the Australian region will be named by another regional authority, and this system will then keep this original name if it moves into the Australian region. The next 10 names that will be assigned to tropical cyclones which form in the Australian region will be: Owen Peta Riordan Sandra Tim Victoria Zane Alessia Bruce Catherine Image: Names that will be assigned to the next 10 tropical cyclones that form in Australia’s area of responsibility. Source: Weatherzone. How to stay safe during the tropical cyclone season Anyone in northern Australia can prepare now for the tropical cyclone season. The James Cook University website has useful information about what to do before the cyclone season, when a cyclone watch or warning is issued and when a tropical cyclone strikes. The Queensland Government also provides important information around how to prepare an effective emergency plan and pack an emergency kit. Western Australia’s DFES website has tropical cyclone safety information for locals and travellers.