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Troughs and an unstable E'ly airflow are causing showers & storms over NSW and Qld, with intense rainfall near Brisbane. An approaching front is bringing showers to WA's southwest. Troughs over NT are causing showers & storms. Hot in the south under N/NW winds and high pressure.
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21 Oct 2026, 11:34PM UTC
Flash flooding after more than 170 mm in three hours in SE Queensland
An overnight deluge in South East Queensland and the northeastern corner of New South Wales has intensified during Thursday morning, with flash-flooding occurring in many places. Numerous locations on both sides of the border received more than 100 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours to 9 am local time on Thursday, with several weather stations north of Brisbane receiving well over 200 mm. The highest recorded 24-hour total was a massive 263 mm at the Caboolture Water Treatment Plant, just north of Brisbane. But the unfolding story of this severe weather event is not just the high 24-hour rainfall totals, but the sustained periods of intense rainfall which are continuing well into Thursday. Rainfall intensifies after dawn in heavily populated corner of SE Queensland Image: Radar over SE Qld and NE NSW for the six hours to 8 am (AEST) on Thursday, October 22, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. After steady rain throughout the night, rainfall rates increased dramatically after dawn at many locations in and around Brisbane, especially on the Sunshine Coast. For example: 172 mm was recorded at Caboolture Water Treatment Plant in the 3 hours to 8:30 am. 168 mm was recorded at Sheep Station Creek (Morayfield) in the 3 hours to 7:30 am. 167 mm was recorded at Round Mt Reservoir in the 3 hours to 8:15 am. This is the heaviest October rain in decades in several locations, and some records have already been broken. For example, Beerburrum (at the southern end of Sunshine Coast hinterland) has registered its wettest October day on record with 170.8 mm. The long-term average for the entire month of October is 81.4 mm. And this has not just been a coastal event. The inland city of Toowoomba received 42.6 mm, its highest October daily total in 29 years and almost as much rain in one day as it received in the four very dry months from June to Setpember this year. What is causing the intense rainfall? Image: Estimate of Queensland rainfall in the 24 hours to 9 am Thursday (AEST), based on radar data. Source: Weatherzone. "Abundant atmospheric moisture is interacting with a surface trough and upper-level trough to cause rain across parts of South East Queensland and NE New South Wales," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains. As Domensino outlined earlier this week, two separate streams of moisture-laden air are colliding over eastern Australia this week. One stream is being provided by winds in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere carrying moisture east all the way from the Indian Ocean. A secondary moisture source is coming from winds flowing onshore from the Coral and Tasman Seas in the lower atmosphere closer to the surface. With abundant atmospheric moisture and a complex system of troughs over Queensland converting that moisture into rain and storms, key ingredients are in place for the current severe rainfall event. How long will this widespread rainfall last? Image: Total accumulated rainfall predicted for Queensland and parts of adjacent states up until next Wednesday, October 28, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly says the general setup with the potential for storm and periods of heavy rainfall will persist until next Tuesday. "During this time, peak storm days are likely to be Thursday into Friday and also Monday as surface troughs concentrate over the southeast Queensland region," Miskelly says. "By Thursday, the intensely humid northerly airstream will finally be displaced by a cold front moving in from the west. "The surface high pressure cell over the Tasman Sea will then shift eastward with dry westerly winds to follow and storm activity shifting to northern Queensland." Severe thunderstorms possible during Thursday On Thursday morning, the BoM issued a severe thunderstorm warning for very dangerous thunderstorms that are likely to produce heavy, locally intense rainfall that may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Brisbane, Caboolture, Ipswich, Nambour, Samford and Woodford. During thunderstorms, remember to: Park your car undercover away from trees. Close doors and windows. Keep asthma medications close by. Storms and wind can trigger asthma attacks. Charge mobile phones and power banks in case the power goes out. Put your pets somewhere safe and make sure they can be identified in case they get lost. Do not drive now unless you have to because conditions are dangerous. Tell friends, family and neighbours in the area. Go inside a strong building. Stay inside until the storm has passed. Please check your local SES in Queensland and NSW for emergency information as this dangerous weather event continues to develop, and remember to check the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest weather warnings and flood alerts.
21 Oct 2026, 6:35AM UTC
Month's rain in two hours as storms light up northern NSW, southern Qld
An outbreak of thunderstorms has produced heavy localised rainfall across a large swathe of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland on Wednesday afternoon, with storm activity continuing into the evening. A severe thunderstorm warning for damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall for parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Maranoa and Warrego and Channel Country forecast districts was issued at 4:23 pm (AEST) on Wednesday. While no equivalent warning was issued for New South Wales during the afternoon, northern parts of that state have also been lashed by widespread storms, some of them delivering heavy rainfall within a short period. Bourke receives its monthly rainfall in just two hours Image: Four-hour combined radar and satellite loop showing the storm around midday on Wednesday near Bourke, NSW. Source: Weatherzone. Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino wrote on Tuesday that some areas in Queensland and New South Wales were in line to receive more than one month’s rain in a matter of days. Bourke in northwestern New South Wales achieved its monthly average in just two hours. Bourke averages 26.1 mm of rainfall across the whole of October, but it received around 28 mm of rainfall between about 11:30 am and 1:30 pm (AEDT) as a large storm crossed the area (see loop above). About five hours north of Bourke, the town of Charleville in western Queensland's Maranoa and Warrego forecast district received 16.2 mm in just half an hour in a different storm between 2:30 pm and 3 pm (AEST). What is causing this stormy outbreak? Two separate streams of moisture-laden air are colliding over eastern Australia. The first source is coming from winds in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere carrying moisture across Australia from the Indian Ocean. In the lower atmosphere closer to the surface, winds are flowing towards Australia from the Coral and Tasman Seas, providing a secondary source of moisture above eastern Australia. Stormy weather to persist for around a week The stormy weather can be expected to continue for the best part of the next week, delivering much-needed rainfall to many locations. For northern NSW and adjacent inland areas, and for southern and central parts of Queensland's coast and adjacent areas, this week should be by far the wettest spell since early autumn. Virtually all of these areas had a very dry winter which was close to the driest on record (in some spots) followed by a relatively dry first half of spring. Brisbane received just 22.4 mm of rainfall in the three months from July to September, but rain is on the forecast for each of the next seven days, with heavy falls possible some days and thunderstorms likely at times too. Flood risk should be monitored Image: Predicted rainfall totals across Australia up until Tuesday, October 27, 2026, showing how NE NSW and SE Qld are the areas forecast to see the heaviest totals. Source: Weatherzone. With so much rain on the horizon, and with the likelihood of severe thunderstorms in some areas, the likelihood of both riverine flooding and flash-flooding will increase. Please check the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest information.
21 Oct 2026, 12:25AM UTC
Hobart facing rare October heat as severe heatwave continues in Tasmania
Hobart could see two 30°C days this week as a severe heatwave continues to affect parts of southern and eastern Tasmania, although a cold change is on the way. An early-season heatwave is affecting parts of Tasmania this week as a near-stationary high pressure system centred over the Tasman Sea directs warm northerly winds across the state. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, a severe heatwave will affect parts of southern and eastern Tasmania between Wednesday and Friday. Image: Heatwave outlook for the three-day period ending on Friday, October 23, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. This week's heatwave is being caused by maximum temperatures reaching the high twenties to low thirties over several consecutive days, combined with overnight minimum temperatures also remaining above average during this period. The Bureau warns that “severe heatwaves can be dangerous for many people, especially older people, babies, children, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with medical conditions and people who are unwell.” Heat record possible for Hobart Hobart has been unusually hot since the start of this week and will continue to feel this summer-like warmth until Friday. After reaching around 29°C on Monday, the city’s maximum temperature hit 30.4°C on Tuesday, which was Hobart’s hottest October day in nine years. Based on current forecasts, maximum temperatures in Hobart will briefly dip to the mid twenties on Wednesday – still well above the October average of 17°C – before climbing back to around 30°C on Thursday and 29°C on Friday. Image: Daily forecast for Hobart in the Weatherzone app. Forecast valid at 11am AEDT on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. If Hobart reaches 30°C twice this week, it will be only the third time in 145 years of records that the city has registered two 30°C days in October. If it manages to get three days at or above 30°C this week, it will be a new October record. Hobart is also on track for a new October record of more than six consecutive days reaching at least 20°C. This Wednesday, October 21, will be the sixth consecutive day over 20°C, which will match the existing record from 1933, 1922, 1894 and 1891 (part of the 1891 record started in late September). This week’s heat should extend the record to eight days by Friday. Cold change on the way Computer models suggest that this week’s heatwave will end abruptly later this week when rain and a cold front sweep over the state this weekend. Image: Forecast 850 hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure over Australia on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, showing cold air spreading over Tasmania. Source: Weatherzone. Hobart’s maximum temperatures are currently forecast to drop to the high teens on Saturday and around 16°C by Sunday. This colder weather is expected to linger into early next week as a cool air mass lingers over the state. Some computer models even indicate that snow could settle on higher parts of central and western Tasmania on Monday or Tuesday next week.




