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A broad low pressure region across eastern WA, the NT, Qld and NSW is bringing a few showers and isolated storms. A cold front crossing southwest WA brings some showers. Westerly winds behind another cold front crossing eastern Aus is bringing showers to Tas and southern Vic.
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Today, 3:19AM UTC
Perth facing sixth consecutive month of below-average rain
Perth is facing the strong likelihood of enduring six-straight months of below-average rainfall in what historically are its six wettest months of the year. While there are still a few days left in October, it's looking extremely likely that Perth's 2026 October rainfall will fall just short of the historical average. It's also virtually certain that this will be Perth's driest May-to-October period in 20 years. How much rain did Perth receive from May to October in 2026? This year, Perth's running six-monthly rainfall total from May to October stands at 399.8 mm. That's just two-thirds of the long-term average. Overall, Perth receives 600.1 mm on average across its six wettest months. That's 83% of its annual average of 721mm, which underlines the importance of cool-season rain. Here's a month-by-month breakdown of Perth's rainfall totals from May to October 2026: May average: 84.5 mm. May 2026 total: 53.2 mm June average: 127.0 mm. June 2026 total 121.6 mm July average: 145.2 mm. July 2026 total 56.8 mm August average: 124.3 mm. August 2026 total 97.0 mm. September average 79.7 mm. September 2026 total 38.6 mm October average 39.4 mm. October 2026 running total 32.4 mm (with further significant rain unlikely) Dry Perth winter, wet in some parts of South West Land Division In years when Perth and the far southwest of WA have had a relatively dry winter, it's usually safe to assume that it was even drier as you headed north or east into the Wheat Belt, the Goldfields or other inland areas. That's because the heaviest winter rainfall tends to arrive from the southwest via cold fronts. But that wasn't always the case this year. At times during the 2026 winter, northwest cloudbands transported Indian Ocean moisture diagonally across the country in a generally southeasterly direction. Perth and the far southwest tip of WA missed that rainfall, but some inland parts of southern WA (including large towns like Esperance and Kalgoorlie) had their seasonal totals hugely boosted by one or two very damp weather events. Meanwhile, cold fronts were less frequent in the southwest than in a typical winter. Image: WA rainfall deciles for winter 2026, showing how winter 2026 saw above average rainfall in some parts of the South West Land Division. Source: BoM. Perth falls short of October rainfall average despite handy overnight rain Perth received 7.2m of rainfall in the 24 hours to 9 am this Monday, but despite the steady showers across the city (and other parts of the southwest), the WA capital looks likely to fall slightly short of its October rainfall average in 2026. Image: Six-hour radar and satellite loop to 4 am (AWST) on Monday, October 26, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. With the early morning showers having pushed north of the city, Perth is now expecting sunny weather for several days. While this Friday, October 30, could see a shower, persistent showers more likely to occur on Saturday, October 31. Since any rain that falls after 9 am on the last day of any month is counted in the 24-hour meteorological day ending at 9 am on the first day of the new month, Saturday's rain will be counted as November rain. That's a slightly technical point, but the bottom line is that this morning's rain was almost certainly Perth's last chance to beat its monthly average in October 2026. Unfortunately, the totals from this event weren't quite high enough. Strong climate signal evident in long-term southwest WA rainfall decline Image: April to October rainfall in southwestern Australia from 1900 to 2025, showing a steep decline over time. Source: BoM. Rainfall has been steadily declining in the southwest of Western Australia, in one of the clearest signals of the influence of the warming climate anywhere in Australia. In 2019, the BoM published a fact sheet on weather in the Perth region that included the following points about the area's weather in the previous 30 years: Annual rainfall had decreased by 9%. Dry years (in terms of rainfall compared to the long-term average) occurred far more often than wet years. Rainfall had decreased in the autumn and winter months. There were more hot days. The number of winter frosts at Mundaring in the Perth Hills had increased. (While this fact appears to contradict the warming trend, it is a reflection of declining rainfall which has enabled more clear nights conducive to cold mornings and frost). According to the BoM, the shift towards drier conditions in the southwest (and also to an extent in the southeast) in the cooler months is due to "a combination of natural variability on decadal timescales and changes in large‑scale circulation caused by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions."
Today, 12:41AM UTC
Queensland to face more heavy rain and severe thunderstorms this week
Rain and thunderstorms could affect parts of Queensland every day this week, with severe storms and flooding a significant risk based on current forecasts. Last week, intense rainfall caused flash flooding as parts of the state’s southeast were inundated with more than 300 mm of rain in 48 hours, with some places receiving more than 170 mm in just three hours. More rain and storms on Monday This week has already started with further torrential rain thanks to storms passing over southeast Queensland early on Monday morning. These storms delivered close to 100 mm in a matter of hours, including: 98 mm in 4 hours at Tarome 75 mm in 3 hours at Upper Goomburra 68 mm in 3 hours at Millbrook Computer models suggest that further thunderstorm activity will affect a broad area of Queensland on Monday, most likely from the central inland down to the state’s southeast. Some of Monday’s storms are likely to become severe, with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain all possible. Conditions may also support supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing destructive winds (greater than 125 km/h) and giant hail (greater than 5 cm diameter) over parts of central and southeast Queensland on Monday afternoon and early evening. Stormy weather continuing this week The atmosphere is likely to be unstable enough to support thunderstorms over parts of Queensland every day this week. On Tuesday, the areas that are most likely to see showers and storms will be northwest, central and southeast Queensland. The wet and stormy weather is expected to contract further north from the middle of the week, mainly impacting northern and central Queensland on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, an eastward-moving low pressure trough could cause showers and thunderstorms to become more intense from Friday into the weekend, while also possibly spreading across southern parts of the state. Some computer models indicate that parts of central Queensland could see heavy rain around Friday as an area of converging winds becomes established over the state. The maps below show how much rain three different computer models are predicting during this week. While there is some disagreement regarding rainfall intensity, all three maps highlight central Queensland as a region that should see some of the heaviest rain this week. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 7 days ending at 10 pm AEST on Sunday, November 1, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 7 days ending at 10 pm AEST on Sunday, November 1, 2026, according to the ACCESS-G model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 7 days ending at 10 pm AEST on Sunday, November 1, 2026, according to the GFS model. Source: Weatherzone. How to keep track of severe weather this week There is a high chance of severe weather over parts of Queensland this week, most likely including severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. While computer models are useful to highlight which parts of the state will have the necessary ingredients for this severe weather and thunderstorm activity, it’s difficult to know exactly where the most intense rain and storms will occur. More reliable information will become available each day as satellites and radar towers start to observe weather as it is happening. This information will be used by the Bureau of Meteorology to monitor conditions as they develop and issue warnings where necessary. Image: Modelled precipitable water and 850 hPa wind at 11 pm AEDT on Friday, October 30, 2026, showing moisture-laden winds converging over central Queensland, which could create a focal point for rainfall. Source: Weatherzone. Pay close attention to the mention of rain and thunderstorms in your local forecasts throughout the week, keeping in mind that these forecasts usually update multiple times each day. As rain and storms begin to develop, look at radar and satellite images to track rain and storms in near-real time. Also regularly check the latest severe weather and severe thunderstorm warnings in your area throughout the week. When severe weather is occurring, emergency services advise people to: Never drive, walk, play or ride through floodwater. Stay away from storm water drains. Stay away from fallen powerlines. Drive slowly and never drive through floodwaters. If the road is flooded or damaged, go another way. For emergency assistance call SES on 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.
25 Oct 2026, 7:28AM UTC
1500km line of severe thunderstorms marches through NSW and Sydney
A line of severe thunderstorms bringing damaging winds, heavy rain and lightning crossed NSW and Sydney on Sunday. Warm, humid and unstable conditions combinined over NSW and inland parts of Queensland on Sunday, driving widespread severe thunderstorms. A series of low pressure troughs were also responsible for triggering these intense thunderstorms. 1,500km line of thunderstorms across NSW Satellite imagery on Sunday afternoon shows a continuous line of thunderstorms stretching nearly 1,500km from southern Queensland, across NSW and into the Bass Strait. Image: Satellite loop on Sunday afternoon, October 25, 2026 showing a continuous line of thunderstorms and lightning stretching nearly 1,500km over eastern Australia. Source: Weatherzone. These thunderstorms have moved from west to east over NSW, generating damaging wind gusts reaching: 113 km/h at Cabramurra 100 km/h at West Wyalong 94 km/h at Narrandera Airport 91 km/h at Wilcannia Airport 85 km/h at Nowra and White Cliffs As of 6pm AEDT, over 445,000 lightning strikes have been recorded across NSW today. Severe thunderstorms crossing Sydney Just before 5 pm AEDT on Sunday afternoon, the thunderstorms reached the far western suburbs of Sydney, with severe thunderstorm warnings being issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for the Sydney Basin. Image: Radar and lightning data as seen on the Weatherzone App on Sunday afternoon, October 25, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Within 50km of Bankstown, over 1,200 lightning strikes had been recorded as of 6pm AEDT. Camden Airport recorded an 82 km/h wind gust as the thunderstorms rolled over. Another low pressure trough over southern NSW was also generating a secondary wave of thunderstorms that could move east into eastern NSW, including Sydney, on Sunday tonight. Thunderstorms could become severe, with an upper level low helping generate powerful winds in thunderstorms. Monday will see thunderstorm risk contracting to northeast NSW and Queensland as a gusty southerly change moves up the NSW coast, most likely reaching Sydney just after sunrise. Thunderstorms will likely be severe in places on Monday, with a risk of damaging to destructive winds, hail and heavy rainfall, most likely east of the ranges to the north of Port Macquarie, extending into the ranges and Darling Downs of Queensland, possibly including Brisbane. Check the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest weather warnings.