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Troughs are producing showers and storms over southern Qld and southern WA. Southerly winds send a few gusty showers over the eastern seaboard. A cold front approaching late brings showers to southwest WA. Dry elsewhere under high pressure.
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Today, 6:40AM UTC
Spring storm outbreak to bring thunderstorms across multiple Australian states
Widespread thunderstorm activity will spread across Australia between Thursday and Sunday, before another round of storms impacts multiple states next week. This prolonged period of storms will include severe thunderstorms in several states. Volatile weather pattern Troughs of low pressure interacting with tropical moisture and copious atmospheric instability will cause a prolonged period of stormy weather across Australia during the next 7 to 10 days. This type of weather is not unusual in Australia during spring, when warming temperatures, moisture and atmospheric instability combine to create favourable conditions for thunderstorm development. Thursday–Friday: WA to central Australia and SA The first phase of this stormy period will commence in Western Australia as a cold front and associated low pressure trough cross the state on Thursday. As this system moves further east on Friday, it will tap into additional tropical moisture and cause rain and thunderstorms to spread across central and southern Australia. Friday’s storms are likely to produce a high volume of lightning and have a good chance of causing severe thunderstorms in parts of SA and central Australia. Image: Forecast precipitable water and mean sea level pressure at 11 am AEST on Friday, October 9, 2026, showing moisture-laden air interacting with a low pressure trough over central and southern Australia. Source: Weatherzone. Friday–Saturday: Eastern states As the trough continues to move further east, a broad arc of rain and storms will progress across eastern Australia on Friday night and Saturday, impacting parts of Queensland, NSW and the ACT. Some of these thunderstorms are likely to become severe. A burst of rain will also spread across Victoria and Tasmania late Friday and on Saturday, with a few storms also possible in these states. Sunday–Wednesday: Second trough bringing more storms Thunderstorms associated with the initial trough will mainly contract to Qld and northern NSW on Sunday. However, another trough is expected to cause storms to redevelop across central and southern Australia from Sunday. Forecast models suggest that this second trough could cause a broad area of rain and thunderstorms to extend across central and southeastern Australia on Monday and Tuesday, before shifting to eastern Australia on Tuesday and Wednesday. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 11pm AEST on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The thunderstorms over the coming week are likely to produce more than 1 million lightning strikes over Australia. Some of the storms will also become severe, meaning they may produce damaging winds, large hail or heavy rain leading to flash flooding. The atmospheric setup may also support isolated supercell thunderstorm development in some parts of the country.
Today, 1:39AM UTC
Central Pacific Ocean exceeds 30°C for first time on record as El Niño strengthens
Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean just exceeded 30°C for the first time on record as El Niño continues to gain strength and influence weather patterns on a global scale. El Niño became established in the Pacific Ocean in the middle of 2026 and has been rapidly gaining strength in the last few months. Data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), published by the University of Maine, reveals that sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region reached 30.06°C on October 5. According to the NOAA OISST data published by Climate Reanlayzer, this is the first time the sea surface temperature inside the Niño3.4 region has exceeded 30°C. The previous record was 29.82°C on November 17, 2015. The long-term average Niño3.4 temperature in early October is about 26.7°C, meaning the 30.06°C observed on October 5 was about 3.4°C above the long-term average. Image: Daily sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org. How strong will this El Niño become? Despite already breaking records, forecast models suggest that this El Niño is still a couple of months away from its peak strength. Modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts a peak sometime between November and January, most likely in December. Current ECMWF guidance suggests a possible peak Niño3.4 anomaly between +3.9°C and +4.3°C. If realised, this would be around 1.5°C above the previous record from 2015, which is a colossal margin for a long-term climate record. Image: Niño3.4 anomaly forecast from the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: ECMWF. How will this El Niño affect the weather? The strengthening El Niño is expected to amplify weather extremes on a global scale in the coming months. The United Nations (UN) warns that this event could bring severe drought and water shortages in some regions, while increasing the risk of heavy rain and flooding in others. Key global impacts associated with the strengthening El Niño could include: Suppressed rainfall leading to worsening drought in parts of the western Pacific, including Papua New Guinea and Indonesia. Increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding across the Greater Horn of Africa. Greater temperature extremes, with higher temperatures likely to accelerate soil moisture loss and enhance drought in some areas. For Australia, the strengthening El Niño is likely to have mixed impacts in the coming months. Parts of southeastern and northern Australia are expected to be drier than average during spring and early summer. By contrast, above average rain may affect parts of western, central and eastern Australia in the coming months. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia during the remainder of 2026. This heat could help increase seasonal bushfire activity during spring and summer, particularly in areas that receive below average rainfall. Tropical cyclone activity can also be suppressed in the Australian region during El Niño. However, there will still be a risk of tropical cyclones impacting the country’s tropical coastline, even if the overall number of cyclones are lower than normal.
06 Oct 2026, 12:45AM UTC
Australia’s tropical cyclone names for the 2026-27 cyclone season
The first tropical cyclone to form inside the Australian region in the upcoming tropical cyclone season will be named Owen, with Sandra and Victoria also on the Bureau of Meteorology's list for the season ahead. Australia’s tropical cyclone season runs from the start of November to the end of April. In an average season, we usually see around 8–10 systems in Australia's area of responsibility – the region of the Indian and Pacific Oceans monitored by the Bureau of Meteorology. Why are tropical cyclones given names? Tropical cyclones are given names to help authorities and media with communication. The Bureau of Meteorology has been naming tropical cyclones since the 1960s and maintains a list of names for tropical cyclones that develop inside Australia's area of responsibility. Tropical cyclones that form outside the Australian region and then move into it keep their original name to avoid confusion. The Australian tropical cyclone list runs in alphabetical order and alternates between male and female names. What tropical cyclone names will be used this season? The final tropical cyclone named in the Australian region during the 2025–26 season was Narelle. The next name on the list – Owen – will be the first name used in the 2026–27 tropical cyclone season. Following Owen will be Peta, Riordan and Sandra, while further names on the list include Tim, Victoria and Zane. If more than seven names are used this season, then Alessia, Bruce and Catherine could also be featured. The image below shows the names that will be given to the next 10 tropical cyclones that form inside Australia’s area of responsibility. Image: Next 10 names on the Bureau of Meteorology's tropical cyclone naming list for the Australian region. Source: Weatherzone. If less than 10 tropical cyclones form in the Australian region this season, the unused names will be retained for the following season. The Bureau can alter the list when a scheduled name matches a prominent person of the time. This happened in 2025 when Anthony was replaced with Alfred to avoid any confusion with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese. The BoM may also permanently retire a name from their list when a tropical cyclone causes significant damage or loss of life.