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A cold front passing over southeast Aust brings showers & storms to Tas, Vic, southeast SA & southern NSW. A moist & unstable airmass will generate showers & storms across east Qld & over the northern tropics. High pressure in the west and central interior brings dry conditions.
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Today, 1:13AM UTC
Snow, hail, freezing winds coming to southeastern Australia
A two-pronged wintry burst is brewing in the Southern Ocean and surging towards southeastern Australia. Rain, hail, gusty winds, and snow in elevated areas are all part of the mix as two distinct cold fronts cross the southeast in a weather pattern more reminiscent of midwinter than late spring. First cold front arrives Wednesday into Thursday The first cold front has already brought chilly conditions on Wednesday morning to parts of South Australia, with Mount Lofty in the Adelaide Hills registering a temperature of just 9.9°C at 11 am (ACDT) while Adelaide itself was a cool 16.5°C under southwesterly winds. While Melbourne should reach 23°C this Wednesday in the slightly warmer air mass ahead of the front, a cooler top of 18°C is forecast for Thursday in the wake of the front. Image: Four-hour satellite loop to 10:30 am (AEDT) showing the cloudband ahead of the first cold front and a speckled air mass indicating cold air behind it over the eastern Great Australian Bight. Source: Weatherzone. Interestingly, the loop above shows the coldest air in the first cold front tracking mostly north of Tasmania, which helps explain why Hobart is expecting a maximum of 20°C on Thursday – two degrees warmer than Melbourne's. "Melbourne will be in a southerly all day on Thursday, while Hobart will have westerly winds flowing down from the mountains," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains. "This flow will be warmer because it's coming from land instead of water and also likely warming up a bit due to the Foehn effect [the natural phenomenon of air becoming warmer and drier as it descends to a lower altitude]." But on Saturday, both Hobart and Melbourne (and plenty of other spots) will be absolutely frigid as the second cold front makes its presence felt. Bitterly cold in Melbourne and Hobart on Saturday Image: 850 hPa temperatures and mean sea level pressure predicted for 11 am (AEDT) on Saturday, November 7, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As the second, stronger cold front arrives on Friday into the weekend, Melbourne is expected to reach a maximum around just 14°C on Saturday. For perspective, the city's average November maximum is 22.0°C while the average maximums in the winter months of June, July and August are 14.1°C, 13.5°C and 15.0°C respectively. Image: 7-day forecast for Mebourne, Vic, on the Weatherzone app. Hobart is also expected to reach just 14°C on Saturday (its average November maximum is 18.8°C). Showers will accompany the influx of cold air in both cities, and small hail is a distinct possibility in many Melbourne suburbs. Snow in Tasmania and the mainland high country Snow is forecast to fall at elevations which would be considered low for snowflakes even in midwinter, with a predicted Saturday snow level of 400 metres in parts of Tasmania, and 800 to 900 metres in the NSW and Victorian high country. While snowfalls in elevated parts of southeastern Australia at this time of year are infrequent, they are not unusual. In most cases, the snow melts within a day or so, however it would still be very wise to reconsider any outdoors plans in mountainous regions this weekend. Image: A few remnant patches of winter snow are still visible above Thredbo on the trail to Mt Kosciuszko on the morning of November 4, 2026. Source: ski.com.au.
03 Nov 2026, 7:53PM UTC
WA heatwave brings Australia’s first 45°C of the season
An extreme heatwave is baking parts of northern Australia this week, with the Western Australia town of Fitzroy Crossing registering the country’s first 45°C so far this spring. A slow-moving upper-level high pressure system has allowed a very hot air mass to build over northwestern Australia this week. On Monday, the temperature peaked at 43.6°C at Telfer in the far eastern Pilbara district of WA. The mercury then rose even higher on Tuesday, reaching as high as 45.1°C at Fitzroy Crossing in the Kimberley region. This was Australia’s first 45°C in nine months. Image: Modelled 850 hPa temperature and wind at 5 pm AEDT on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, showing a hot air mass over northern WA. Source: Weatherzone. Temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-forties over some northern parts of WA again on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Over this three-day period, minimum temperatures will also stay up around 30°C for some places. While this heat is not breaking records, it is part of a prolonged run of days and nights that will be hot enough to be classified as an extreme heatwave. Image: Heatwave forecast for the three days ending on Thursday this week. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Some computer models predict that maximum temperatures could reach around 47°C in the Pilbara over the next few days. Marble Bar is one location forecast to see daily highs around 46°C on Thursday and Friday. Image: Daily forecasts for Marble Bar, WA in the Weatherzone app. At this stage, temperatures should start to back off towards the end of the week as building tropical moisture causes an increase in cloud, rain and thunderstorm activity over northern WA.
03 Nov 2026, 2:48AM UTC
Why did Australia have its 9th-wettest October during El Niño?
Australia just recorded its 9th-wettest October since national rainfall observations started in 1900, with above-average rainfall in all states and territories except Tasmania. So why did this happen during the current strong phase of El Niño, a climate driver which typically brings drier weather to most of Australia at this time of year? Image: October rainfall anomaly for Australia as a whole, 1900 to 2026. Source: BoM. Here are the main reasons why October 2026 was generally wet in Australia despite El Niño: Warmer than average sea-surface temperatures around Australia El Niño tends to reduce rainfall over Australia during winter and spring (and especially in large parts of southern and eastern Australia) by weakening the trade winds that blow moisture-laden air towards the country from the tropical Pacific Ocean. But as Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains, "Warmer-than-average water near Australia can supply the atmosphere with additional moisture via enhanced evaporation, which can counteract the drying influence of El Niño." Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies around Australia on November 1, 2026. Source: BoM. As the chart above illustrates, sea surface temperatures were around a degree above average at the start of November in waters surrounding significant portions of Australia. The pattern was similar during October. Warm Indian Ocean waters negate typical effects of both El Niño and positive IOD Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies on October 26, 2026, showing a large area of warmer than normal water just south of the tropics and outside the labelled IOD monitoring regions. Source: NOAA. While El Niño is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon, the dynamics of the Indian Ocean also influence Australia's weather. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an index that monitors changes in sea surface temperatures on either side of the tropical Indian Ocean. Like El Niño, the different phases of the IOD typically affect Australia's weather in different ways. On October 27, the BoM declared that a positive IOD event was underway, after the IOD Index exceeded the positive threshold for seven consecutive weeks. A positive IOD means that surface waters in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (near Indonesia) are consistently cooler than the western tropical Indian Ocean, and it typically results in less moisture-laden air (and associated rainfall) flowing towards Australia from the northwest. Image: Typical features and impacts of a positive IOD. Source: Weatherzone. The combination of a positive IOD and a strong El Niño would ordinarily provide two strong pointers to a predominantly dry weather pattern across much of Australia during October. But their effects throughout October were largely negated (and could continue to be defied in November) by a large area of warmer-than-average water in the south–central Indian Ocean, sitting just south of the IOD monitoring regions in the tropics. During October, moisture streamed across the country on several occasions from the part of the Indian Ocean where the warm "blob" was located. Warmer-than-average waters east of Australia also played a significant role. The largely stagnant Tasman Sea high pressure system in mid-October In mid-October, a large, very slow-moving high pressure system drifted out over the Tasman Sea and effectively "parked" itself there for around a week. Air circulating anti-clockwise around this high pushed moisture-laden air from both the Tasman and Coral Seas towards Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. The prolonged mid-month wet spell helped Queensland as a whole register its second-wettest October on record, while rainfall was the highest on record for parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, and Wide Bay and Burnett forecast districts. Image: Australian rainfall deciles in October, 2026. Source: BoM. Short-term outlook: can we expect more widespread rain in November despite El Niño and the positive IOD? "The positive IOD is still expected to restrict the amount of available moisture to generate rainfall across the Australian region in coming months, although it’s strongest impacts may be to the north of the country," Ben Domensino explains. "This dry influence will also be enhanced by El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean." As the map below shows, Tasmania faces another potentially drier-than-average month, while southern Victoria could also miss out on significant rainfall. If so, Melbourne parks and gardens should stay green for now after 113.8 mm accumulated in the city gauge during October, the wettest month of 2026 to date. Image: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall during November 2026, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model. Source: BoM. At this stage, forecast models are also expecting wetter-than-average conditions for most of Australia in December.