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Moist and unstable winds are triggering thunderstorms over parts of northern Qld, the NT, eastern WA and western SA, some intense. Onshore winds around a high are driving a few showers into western Tas, northeast NSW and eastern Qld. The high keeps the southeast dry and settled.
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Today, 7:22AM UTC
Positive IOD declared, but Australia may avoid its typical dry influence
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was declared this week by the Bureau of Meteorology. While this climate driver usually increases the likelihood of dry and warm weather in Australia, that probably won’t be the case with this event. What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? The IOD refers to an index that monitors changes in sea surface temperatures on either side of the tropical Indian Ocean. Under normal conditions, when the IOD is in a neutral phase, westerly winds flow across the surface of the tropical Indian Ocean towards Indonesia and northern Australia. When these westerly winds weaken, cooler than normal water starts to build up on the eastern side of the tropical Indian Ocean, near Indonesia, while warmer than normal water emerges near the Horn of Africa in the western tropical Indian Ocean. This pattern is referred to as a positive phase of the IOD. A positive IOD typically results in less moisture-laden air flowing towards Australia from the northwest, which usually causes below average rainfall and above average maximum temperatures in large parts of Australia during winter and spring. Image: Typical features and impacts of a positive IOD. Source: Weatherzone. By contrast, when the westerly winds strengthen over the tropical Indian Ocean, warmer water can start to pool to the northwest of Australia, while cooler than normal water develops near the Horn of Africa. This pattern represents a negative IOD phase, which usually causes above average rain and cooler than average daytime temperatures in Australia during winter and spring. Image: Typical features and impacts of a negative IOD. Source: Weatherzone. Positive IOD declared this week The IOD index has been sitting above the BoM’s positive IOD threshold of +0.4°C for the past seven weeks, with the latest value reaching +0.69°C in the week ending October 25. This sustained run of positive values prompted the Bureau to declare this week that a positive IOD is now underway. Computer model guidance suggests this positive IOD event is likely to persist during the rest of spring and could return to a neutral phase in early summer. This breakdown at the start of summer is also part of the normal lifecycle of an IOD event, which gives credibility to the forecast. Image: IOD index outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. What does this positive IOD mean for Australia? When a positive IOD is declared, meteorologists typically expect an increased likelihood of below average rain and above average maximum temperatures in Australia during the following months. However, this event is likely to be different, at least for rainfall. Current seasonal forecasts suggest that rainfall could be above average over much of Australia in November and December. Image: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall during November 2026, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Image: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall during December 2026, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The maps above show what one computer model is predicting in terms of rainfall for the next two months. The maps below shows what rainfall impacts typically look like during a positive IOD. Image: Mean rainfall deciles for the October–December period during 11 positive IOD events between 1961 and 2019. The red areas show where rainfall was below normal for this period. Over the next couple of months, rainfall is currently forecast to be higher than average over large areas of Australia, including regions that are typically drier than usual during a positive IOD. Why could this positive IOD be wetter than expected? One of the main reasons for the wet seasonal outlooks despite a positive IOD is a large region of warmer than average water in the south–central Indian Ocean, sitting just south of the IOD monitoring regions. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies on October 26, 2026, showing a large area of warmer than normal water just south of the tropics and outside the labelled IOD monitoring regions. Source: NOAA. The abundance of warmer than average water at the surface of the Indian Ocean is enhancing evaporation and adding more moisture to the air. This moisture can then be transported towards Australia by westerly winds, cold fronts and other passing weather systems. This may be helping offset some of the drying influence typically associated with a positive IOD. It’s important to point out that the positive IOD is still expected to influence rainfall in the Australian region in the coming months, although it’s strongest impacts may be to the north of the country. This dry influence will also be enhanced by El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Image: Chance of exceeding median rainfall during November 2026 according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: ECMWF. Positive IOD warmth more likely While rainfall could defy the typical positive IOD trends during the coming months, daytime maximum temperatures will probably be above average for much of Australia in November and December, which is in line with the expectations of a typical positive IOD event.
Today, 12:38AM UTC
Alice Springs has been wetter this year than Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart
Alice Springs received 41 mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9 am this Thursday, thanks to storms that began late on Wednesday afternoon. This was a new 24-hour rainfall record for October. But the broader story is that Alice Springs now has a running rainfall total of 508 mm to date in 2026. That makes it the wettest year since 2010 in the the iconic outback town, and also its 5th-wettest year on record with two months remaining. While the record wet year of 1974 (728.5 mm) is still a way off, it's still very rare for Alice Springs to pass the 500 mm rainfall threshold in a calendar year. It's also very unusual for Alice Springs to be wetter than any of the capital cities over a 10-month period. But at present in 2026, Alice Springs has received more rain than Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart – and it's only marginally behind Adelaide and Perth. Image: Radar and satellite loop in the Alice Springs area for the eight hours to 12 am on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Alice Springs rainfall statistics (compared to other cities) to date in 2026 Alice Springs average annual rainfall: 283.7 mm Alice Springs rainfall to date in 2026: 508.0 mm Melbourne average annual rainfall: 642.9 mm Melbourne rainfall to date in 2026: 464.0 mm Canberra average annual rainfall: 636.7 mm Canberra rainfall to date in 2026: 476.8 mm Hobart average annual rainfall: 608.6 mm Hobart rainfall to date in 2026: 370.8 mm It's also worth noting that Alice Springs (508.0 mm year to date) is within a whisker of topping Adelaide's running total of 512.2 mm so far in 2026, and Perth's running total of 519.0 mm. Why has Alice Springs been so wet this year? Image: Monthly rainfall (sky blue bars) vs the monthly average (pale blue bars) over the over the last 12 months in Alice Springs, NT. Source: Weatherzone. Like most years, Alice springs has seen a mix of months with moderate rainfall totals, or even no rain, during most of 2026. But heavy rain in February and March made all the difference. In February, a very slow-moving low pressure system and associated trough linked up with a tropical moisture feed from the north. Due to the unusually persistent nature of this system, Alice Springs recorded 15 days of rain throughout the month, including a very rare nine-day rainy streak. According to the Northern Territory Department of Lands, Planning and Environment, the Todd River reached its second-highest flood level on record after more significant falls of rain in March, including an extremely heavy rain day of 71.8 mm on March 17. What caused the overnight downpour, and is more rain likely this week? The airmass over much over the Northern Territory is unstable at the moment, due to a deep and humid northerly airstream flowing into a destabilising trough lying across the south of the NT. This trough will contract to the northeast during Friday, taking the bulk of instability and humidity with it, however more showers and possible storms are likely in Alice Springs and nearby areas this Thursday, and some showers could stick around for at least another day.
28 Oct 2026, 1:38AM UTC
Heaviest Darwin rain since April as wet season build-up escalates
Darwin recorded its first double-digit daily rainfall total since April in the 24 hours to 9 am Wednesday. While the 16.8 mm that fell in half an hour around 5 pm on Tuesday was far from a major downpour by local standards, it was a clear sign that the wet season is imminent, especially with possible showers on the forecast almost every day in the week ahead. To understand the transition from the dry season to the wet season in Darwin and the Northern Territory's Top End, it's important to distinguish between two key terms: the build-up and the onset. What is the wet season build-up? The wet season build-up is the term used to describe the return of humid conditions to the Top End ahead of the first significant tropical downpours, after months of predominantly dry weather. The build-up typically begins around mid-to-late September and is caused by the shift from winter synoptic patterns to summer patterns. As the Southern Hemisphere transitions from winter to spring, the high pressure systems which bring clear, stable weather to much of interior and northern Australia tend to retreat towards the Southern Ocean. This causes the dry southeasterly trade winds over the Top End to weaken. Meanwhile humidity increases as sea surface temperatures start to rise in northern Australian waters. But the build-up doesn't immediately mean that regular rainfall kicks in. Indeed, it can be quite a frustrating period for locals, as September, October and November are typically Darwin's three hottest months and the humidity can be stifling without the relief of afternoon showers and storms. What is the northern rainfall onset? Image: Median arrival of the Top End rainfall onset in all years. Source: BoM. When the northern rainfall onset arrives, it means the wet season is officially underway. The onset is reached when 50 mm of accumulated rainfall has been recorded since September 1. The figure of 50 millimetres is considered a key threshold because it's roughly the amount which stimulates plant growth. So when you've got 50 millimetres in the gauge (whether from a single storm or from several days of rain), the onset has officially arrived. As the chart at the top of this section shows, the onset tends to arrive later the further south you travel in northern Australia. It also tends to arrive a little later during El Niño years like this one, as the chart below indicates. Image: Median arrival of the Top End rainfall onset in El Niño years. Source: BoM. Interestingly, as of 9 am this Tuesday, October 28, Darwin has accumulated 37 mm of rainfall since September 1. So it will be a close call to see whether this year's Darwin onset officially occurs during the typical period for all years (the last week of October) or during the typical period in El Niño years (the first week of November). It's also worth noting that there is virtually no correlation between an early or late northern rainfall onset and a wet season which is relatively wet or dry by historical standards. Rain also likely in Central Australia this week Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across the NT from Wednesday, October 28 until the morning of Saturday, October 31, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The Top End is not the only part of the NT expecting wet weather this week. As the chart above shows, significant falls are possible over large parts of the territory over the next two days, including in Central Australia. Alice Springs is just one town expecting heavy showers and storms. We'll keep you posted on the weather in the southern NT as this event unfolds.