Every February 2nd, crowds gather at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to see if a groundhog will predict six more weeks of winter or an early start to spring in the US and Canada. But how accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

What is Groundhog Day?

Groundhog Day is an annual event that has been celebrated in the United States since February 2, 1886 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. This is where Punxsutawney Phil resides at Gobbler’s Knob. Predictions for six more weeks of winter or an early spring started in 1887. Since then, Phil has made 129 predictions where 108 times he has seen his shadow indicating a prediction of six more weeks of winter. Predictions were not recorded for 10 years early on in this tradition.

How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Since the start of the Groundhog Day tradition, more groundhogs and ‘alternative’ groundhogs have started weighing in on how much longer winter will last.

According to www.groundhog-day.com, in 2025 there were 78 weather-forecasting prognosticators, this includes groundhogs in the U.S. and Canada along with the ‘alternative’ groundhogs across the country.

From 2006 to 2025 (20 years of predictions) Punxsutawney Phil has only been correct about 38% of the time. This was calculated using the average temperature for March each year and comparing it to Phil’s predictions. If the temperatures for March were near normal or average, these years (7 in total) were not used to calculate the percentage of accuracy.

Will Phil see his shadow this year?

The forecast in the morning of February 2, 2026 in Punxsutawney, PA is currently set to be partly cloudy with temperatures near -2°F to 0°F rising to near 6°F by noon.

In terms of what’s expected in the season ahead, weather models are predicting the seasonal temperature outlook for February, March, and April to be above normal for about a third of the country ,with the northwest, central, and northeast U.S. having roughly equal probability of above or below norming temperatures.

Image: Seasonal temperature outlook for February to March 2026. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

You can find all of Punxsutawney Phil’s past predictions on the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club website.